Long-term clients of mine, even those dating back to my decade at Dataquest in the 1990s, are familiar with the concept that spot prices behave differently during a shortage. When there is too much DRAM spot prices remain below contract prices, because OEMs who bought too much product clear their inventory at quarter end (and other times) by selling at a loss.
During a shortage the opposite is true: OEMS find that they can’t get as much DRAM as they wanted through their contract sources, so they shop for the balance on the spot market. Since there are more buyers than sellers, spot prices invariably raise higher than contract prices.
When the prices change from one state of affairs to the other then it is safe to assume that Continue reading
What is going on, and how is it likely to play out? The prices in the chart represent the lowest spot market prices reported by market tracker InSpectrum for the past year. These prices typically remain below contract prices as long as there is an oversupply, and stay above contract prices during a shortage.
According to InSpectrum’s figures, today’s lowest spot market DRAM prices are about double Continue reading