The Objective Analysis 2019 Chip Forecast

It’s the time of year for Objective Analysis to release its 2019 forecast. What does next year promise?
Every year VLSI Research invites us to produce a video of our semiconductor revenue forecast for the coming year. Since we have been doing this for a number of years there are now twelve videos on the VLSI Research “WeSRCH” website. The latest video can be viewed by clicking on this link.
We’re proud of our record of semiconductor forecasts. While other market research companies dislike discussing their past successes and failures, Objective Analysis puts all of our historical forecasts online in one simple table on our website’s Forecast Accuracy page. A careful review reveals a stellar track record, with the exception of 2009 and 2015, both of which were related to major macroeconomic events that even leading world economists failed to predict (i.e. the 2008 Global Economic Collapse and the combined China currency devaluation and oil price collapse in 2014.)
Another important factor in the Objective Analysis forecast methodology is that we only update the forecast once a year. Our clients dislike being told one thing at the beginning of the year and something completely different at year-end. If the forecast is Continue reading
Intel’s Losses Amid Others’ Gains
Why has Intel’s NVM Solutions Group (NSG), the owner of the company’s NAND flash, SSD, and 3D XPoint businesses, been losing money during a time when all other manufacturers are more profitable than they have been in years?
This is a question that certain investors have put to The Memory Guy for the past year or so, and it deserves some explanation.
This post’s graphic compares Intel’s NSG net profit margins to the margins published by other memory companies. (Click on it to see the whole chart.) This isn’t a completely clean comparison since the data for Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron includes DRAM, and recent quarters are missing for Western Digital (SanDisk) and Toshiba since these companies have stopped sharing comparable financials, but it still serves as a relatively clear indication that Intel’s NSG (blue) is losing money while all other companies are quite profitable.
Something seems dreadfully Continue reading