Objective Analysis Forecast Update

Sketch of a chart with arrow pointing up and to the rightAlthough The Memory Guy blog doesn’t often discuss the total semiconductor market, Objective Analysis does a particularly good job of forecasting not only memories, but also the semiconductor market as a whole.

That said,  a video explaining our 2023 semiconductor forecast has recently Continue reading “Objective Analysis Forecast Update”

Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses

Old wood block print showing knights riding their steeds over a cliff.Starting with Micron’s most recent earnings call The Memory Guy has been hearing memory executives and others use the word “Unprecedented” to describe today’s market collapse.  Perhaps the strangest of these was an article in the Storage Newsletter that said that the current situation was “Unprecedented since 2008.”  Given that “Unprecedented” means that nothing like this has ever happened before, that’s a pretty strange thing to say.

Being a numbers guy, I decided to see just how Continue reading “Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses”

Emerging Memories After Optane

Prism made of memory hierarchy splitting a beam of light into a color spectrum. Each color has the name of a new memory technology.Now that Intel is exiting the Optane market what will happen to the market for new memory technologies?  This is an interesting question that The Memory Guy has focused considerable attention over the past few years.  In a nutshell, the market will continue to develop, but at a slower pace, with the bulk of revenue growth going to memories embedded into SoCs.

Even so, the market will grow significantly, with revenues reaching Continue reading “Emerging Memories After Optane”

How Do US Chips Get Into Russian Missiles?

An August 8 investigative report by Reuters revealed that many of the missiles that Russia has been raining down on Ukraine include US chip technology.  The Memory Guy thought that it might be good not to simply react, but to provide some deeply considered insight into how that could have happened, and what it might mean.

The Story

Russian missiles that failed to explode in Ukraine have been examined and found Continue reading “How Do US Chips Get Into Russian Missiles?”

Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow

Pretty photo of a die reflecting a rainbow of lightDuring Micron’s May 12 Investor Day Conference the company presented a number of new memory technologies and one compelling new business strategy that The Memory Guy thought were worth sharing.  The audience learned of yet-another planar DRAM process node, Micron’s layer count for its next-generation NAND, how a portion of its proprietary SSD controller has been absorbed into the NAND chips, and finally Continue reading “Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow”

How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories

A close-up of the right side of the chart below, showing a gap of 45% above trend.

There’s been a lot of talk in the press for over a year about the chip shortage, but this isn’t something that I have written about in The Memory Guy.  My coverage of the shortage has been limited to the investor posts that I write for Smartkarma, and they’re behind a paywall.  It’s about time for me to post something here.

The shortage is the reason that the world semiconductor market is constantly breaking revenue records.  Since December 2020 every month has set Continue reading “How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories”

Tectonic Change Coming to Chip Production

Drawing of a log rotating on a lathe being cut into veneerEvery so often a new idea comes into an established industry from an unexpected direction and creates a dramatic change to the way that the industry operates.  In today’s post The Memory Guy will explain a radical new chip production process will rapidly change the nature and cost structure of the entire semiconductor industry, DRAM and NAND flash first, slashing costs and waste while phenomenally increasing output.

This revolutionary approach stems from Continue reading “Tectonic Change Coming to Chip Production”

More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week

Five briefs on top of each otherAs we have every week since January, this week Objective Analysis published another handful of our white papers, which we call “Objective Analysis Briefs”.

This week’s set covers a very diverse range, from the dissolution of a joint venture, through semiconductor cycles and business strategy, to Continue reading “More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week”

Five New Briefs: YMTC, SK hynix, Intel, and a Forecast

Five briefs on top of each otherAs we have been doing since mid-January, we introduce another five of our Objective Analysis Briefs this week, bringing the total this year to 35.

This week’s release covers three companies, YMTC, SK hynix, and Intel, and one explains the process we used in 2020 to create our 2021 forecast, with and without a pandemic-driven Continue reading “Five New Briefs: YMTC, SK hynix, Intel, and a Forecast”

Are Memory Chips Commodities? (Part 2)

Photo of an old financial document bearing the title Commodity ExchangeThis post is the second of a two-part series on The Memory Guy explaining commodities, and especially how they relate to memory chips.  Part 1 defines a commodity and explains its attributes.  Part 2 explains the commodity cycle, showing that lessons cam be learned from other commodity markets.


Nobody really likes the Continue reading “Are Memory Chips Commodities? (Part 2)”