For the past few months memory prices have been skyrocketing. This has been fueled by an interesting combination of extraordinary AI spending and HBM’s low gigabyte production per DRAM wafer. Given these facts, which I will explain in detail in this post, just how high will memory prices go? And, after that, how long will prices stay this high? The Memory Guy has been getting asked that Continue reading “How High Can Memory Prices Go?”
Category: Price Trends & Forecasts
Some Clarity on 2025’s DDR4 Price Surge
DDR4 spot prices have been surging since March. Why is that happening, and what can we understand from it? The Memory Guy thought it might be helpful to chart what has happened with DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices to better understand that.
The chart below plots the lowest spot prices of tested DDR4 and DDR5 DRAMs of any Continue reading “Some Clarity on 2025’s DDR4 Price Surge”
Announcing Our New CXL Report
The Memory Guy is pleased to announce general availability of a new Objective Analysis Detailed Report: CXL Looks for the Perfect Home.
Since Compute Express Link (CXL) is so important to members of the DRAM market and the hyperscale computing community, the report focuses on those sectors, but it offers Continue reading “Announcing Our New CXL Report”
FMS – New Focus and a Heavy AI and CXL presence
Last week’s FMS conference, originally the Flash Memory Summit, but now the Future of Memory and Storage, saw a strong return of the show’s original excitement and attendance, with numerous presentations on key new technologies, largely AI and CXL, and crowds similar to those before the pandemic. FMS is held in early August every year in Santa Clara, California.
The new name is meant to match the show’s content better than Continue reading “FMS – New Focus and a Heavy AI and CXL presence”
Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released
Objective Analysis has just released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, and it seems fitting to mention it on The Memory Guy blog since memories are a key part of the semiconductor business’ cyclicality. Let’s have a quick look at what’s in store.
Late 2023 is starting to show signs of another super cycle similar to those of Continue reading “Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released”
Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?
My regular clients who get quarterly in-person market updates and those readers who have attended my annual Flash Market Update session at the Flash Memory Summit have often been told how Objective Analysis models the memory market based on supply/demand dynamics and the fact that memory chip prices tend to follow a very predictable pattern. In this post The Memory Guy blog will explain that Continue reading “Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?”
Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently released its January semiconductor market revenue figures. January revenues were down 5.2% month-on-month, and 18.5% from January 2022. Things are pretty bad.
The Memory Guy decided to compare the current situation to the forecast that I was sharing with my clients last October, five months ago. At that time my company predicted that 2022 revenues would Continue reading “Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule”
Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming
[Post updated 14 Feb. with Kioxia data, a margin chart, and to correct an error.]
The quarterly results of most memory companies have been reported, and revenues, gigabyte shipments, and prices are all down. Most of the profits have been taken out of the business.
This is not an unusual situation for Continue reading “Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming”
Objective Analysis Forecast Update
Although The Memory Guy blog doesn’t often discuss the total semiconductor market, Objective Analysis does a particularly good job of forecasting not only memories, but also the semiconductor market as a whole.
That said, a video explaining our 2023 semiconductor forecast has recently Continue reading “Objective Analysis Forecast Update”
Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses
Starting with Micron’s most recent earnings call The Memory Guy has been hearing memory executives and others use the word “Unprecedented” to describe today’s market collapse. Perhaps the strangest of these was an article in the Storage Newsletter that said that the current situation was “Unprecedented since 2008.” Given that “Unprecedented” means that nothing like this has ever happened before, that’s a pretty strange thing to say.
Being a numbers guy, I decided to see just how Continue reading “Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses”