Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released

Close-Up of the COVID-19 Super Cycle and of 2023 from the chart below.Objective Analysis has just released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, and it seems fitting to mention it on The Memory Guy blog since memories are a key part of the semiconductor business’ cyclicality.  Let’s have a quick look at what’s in store.

Late 2023 is starting to show signs of another super cycle similar to those of Continue reading “Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released”

Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?

My regular clients who get quarterly in-person market updates and those readers who have attended my annual Flash Market Update session at the Flash Memory Summit have often been told how Objective Analysis models the memory market based on supply/demand dynamics and the fact that memory chip prices tend to follow a very predictable pattern.  In this post The Memory Guy blog will explain that Continue reading “Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?”

Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule

Partial view of a graph, only showing a dashed straight black line, a red bump above, red dashes falling back to the black, and a blue line to the right of the red dashed line.The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently released its January semiconductor market revenue figures.  January revenues were down 5.2% month-on-month, and 18.5% from January 2022.  Things are pretty bad.

The Memory Guy decided to compare the current situation to the forecast that I was sharing with my clients last October, five months ago.  At that time my company predicted that 2022 revenues would Continue reading “Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule”

Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming

[Post updated 14 Feb. with Kioxia data, a margin chart, and to correct an error.]

The quarterly results of most memory companies have been reported, and revenues, gigabyte shipments, and prices are all down.  Most of the profits have been taken out of the business.

This is not an unusual situation for Continue reading “Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming”

Objective Analysis Forecast Update

Sketch of a chart with arrow pointing up and to the rightAlthough The Memory Guy blog doesn’t often discuss the total semiconductor market, Objective Analysis does a particularly good job of forecasting not only memories, but also the semiconductor market as a whole.

That said,  a video explaining our 2023 semiconductor forecast has recently Continue reading “Objective Analysis Forecast Update”

Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses

Old wood block print showing knights riding their steeds over a cliff.Starting with Micron’s most recent earnings call The Memory Guy has been hearing memory executives and others use the word “Unprecedented” to describe today’s market collapse.  Perhaps the strangest of these was an article in the Storage Newsletter that said that the current situation was “Unprecedented since 2008.”  Given that “Unprecedented” means that nothing like this has ever happened before, that’s a pretty strange thing to say.

Being a numbers guy, I decided to see just how Continue reading “Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses”

Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow

Pretty photo of a die reflecting a rainbow of lightDuring Micron’s May 12 Investor Day Conference the company presented a number of new memory technologies and one compelling new business strategy that The Memory Guy thought were worth sharing.  The audience learned of yet-another planar DRAM process node, Micron’s layer count for its next-generation NAND, how a portion of its proprietary SSD controller has been absorbed into the NAND chips, and finally Continue reading “Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow”

How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories

A close-up of the right side of the chart below, showing a gap of 45% above trend.

There’s been a lot of talk in the press for over a year about the chip shortage, but this isn’t something that I have written about in The Memory Guy.  My coverage of the shortage has been limited to the investor posts that I write for Smartkarma, and they’re behind a paywall.  It’s about time for me to post something here.

The shortage is the reason that the world semiconductor market is constantly breaking revenue records.  Since December 2020 every month has set Continue reading “How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories”

More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week

Five briefs on top of each otherAs we have every week since January, this week Objective Analysis published another handful of our white papers, which we call “Objective Analysis Briefs”.

This week’s set covers a very diverse range, from the dissolution of a joint venture, through semiconductor cycles and business strategy, to Continue reading “More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week”

WDC Issues Contamination Update

Photo of author in bunny suit holding wafer with Jolly RogerWestern Digital today shared an update on the material contamination that impacted the joint-venture manufacturing facilities that the company shares with Kioxia.

Although the company increased its estimate of the loss from 6.5 exabytes to 7 exabytes, this number is still in the realm of 3.5% of WDC’s annual NAND flash shipments.  It represents about two Continue reading “WDC Issues Contamination Update”