Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow

Pretty photo of a die reflecting a rainbow of lightDuring Micron’s May 12 Investor Day Conference the company presented a number of new memory technologies and one compelling new business strategy that The Memory Guy thought were worth sharing.  The audience learned of yet-another planar DRAM process node, Micron’s layer count for its next-generation NAND, how a portion of its proprietary SSD controller has been absorbed into the NAND chips, and finally Continue reading “Micron Investor Day: Big Plans for Tomorrow”

How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories

A close-up of the right side of the chart below, showing a gap of 45% above trend.

There’s been a lot of talk in the press for over a year about the chip shortage, but this isn’t something that I have written about in The Memory Guy.  My coverage of the shortage has been limited to the investor posts that I write for Smartkarma, and they’re behind a paywall.  It’s about time for me to post something here.

The shortage is the reason that the world semiconductor market is constantly breaking revenue records.  Since December 2020 every month has set Continue reading “How the Chip Shortage Impacts Memories”

More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week

Five briefs on top of each otherAs we have every week since January, this week Objective Analysis published another handful of our white papers, which we call “Objective Analysis Briefs”.

This week’s set covers a very diverse range, from the dissolution of a joint venture, through semiconductor cycles and business strategy, to Continue reading “More New “Brief” White Papers Published This Week”

WDC Issues Contamination Update

Photo of author in bunny suit holding wafer with Jolly RogerWestern Digital today shared an update on the material contamination that impacted the joint-venture manufacturing facilities that the company shares with Kioxia.

Although the company increased its estimate of the loss from 6.5 exabytes to 7 exabytes, this number is still in the realm of 3.5% of WDC’s annual NAND flash shipments.  It represents about two Continue reading “WDC Issues Contamination Update”

New Briefs Cover Diverse Subjects

Five briefs on top of each otherWith this week’s release of five more new Briefs, Objective Analysis is now a little more than halfway through the current wave of releases.  If you look through the Briefs listed on the Objective Analysis website you’ll find that they cover a diverse range of important semiconductor issues.

This week’s lineup covers the end of Continue reading “New Briefs Cover Diverse Subjects”

Introducing New Objective Analysis Briefs

Five briefs on top of each otherAlthough Objective Analysis has published its “Brief” format white papers for some time, this line has never received the focus that it deserves.  To remedy that, we are taking the most interesting and timeless of the Insights that we have published on membership website Smartkarma and providing them to our friends for a reasonable price.

The Brief is a very short report format used to make a succinct Continue reading “Introducing New Objective Analysis Briefs”

Emerging Memory Market to Hit $36 Billion by 2030

A compass dial overlaid on tp of a silicon wafer full of memory chipsThe Memory Guy is pleased to announce the release of a new report co-authored by Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates named: Emerging Memories Find Their Direction.  In this report we show that emerging memories, MRAM, ReRAM, 3D XPoint, and other technologies are well on their way to reach $36 billion of combined revenues by 2030.

The report provides invaluable guidance to Continue reading “Emerging Memory Market to Hit $36 Billion by 2030”

Forecasting with Smith Charts

Example Smith ChartForecasting the memory market can be quite daunting unless you use the appropriate tools, then it becomes enormously simple.  Many of my clients ask The Memory Guy how it is that I am able to come up with such consistently-acurate forecasts in a seemingly-unpredictable market.  My answer is always that I use the Smith Chart.  This chart is a nomogram, presented in an angular/logarithmic format (as opposed to Continue reading “Forecasting with Smith Charts”

Intel’s Optane DIMM Price Model

With Intel’s Cascade Lake rollout last month came with a co-introduction of 3D XPoint Memory in a DIMM form factor, the Optane DIMM that had been promised since the first introduction of 3D XPoint Memory in mid-2015.  A lot of benchmarks were provided to make the case for using Optane DIMMs (formally known as the Intel Optane DC Persistent Memory), but not much was said about the pricing, except for assertions that significant savings were possible when Optane was used to replace some of the DRAM in a large computing system.

So…  How much does it cost?  Well certain technical reports in resources like Anandtech probed sales channels to see what they could find, but The Memory Guy learned that the presentations Intel made to the press in advance of the Cascade Lake rollout contained not only prices for the three Optane DIMM densities (128, 256, & 512GB), but also provided the prices of the DRAM DIMMs that they were being compared against.  I’ll get to that in a moment, but first let’s wade through the fundamentals of Intel’s Optane pricing strategy to understand why Intel has needs to price it the way that it has.

In Objective Analysis’ report on 3D XPoint Memory, and in several presentations I have Continue reading “Intel’s Optane DIMM Price Model”

Memory Market Falling, as Predicted

Memory Price & Cost BehaviorIt’s earnings call season, and we have heard of a slowing DRAM market and NAND flash price declines from Micron, SK hynix, Intel, and now Samsung.  DRAM prices have stopped increasing, and that can be viewed as a precursor to a price decline.

Samsung’s 31 October, 2018 3Q18 earnings call vindicated Objective Analysis‘ forecast for a 2H18 downturn in memories that will take the rest of the semiconductor market with it.

Those familiar with our forecast know that for a few years we have been predicting a downturn in the  second half of this year as NAND flash prices fall, followed by a DRAM price collapse.  After the DRAM collapse the rest of the semiconductor market will undergo a downturn.

We’ve been calling for this downturn for some time.  Dan Hutcheson at VLSI Research has been videotaping our forecast every December for the past Continue reading “Memory Market Falling, as Predicted”