Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released

Close-Up of the COVID-19 Super Cycle and of 2023 from the chart below.Objective Analysis has just released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, and it seems fitting to mention it on The Memory Guy blog since memories are a key part of the semiconductor business’ cyclicality.  Let’s have a quick look at what’s in store.

Late 2023 is starting to show signs of another super cycle similar to those of 2017 and 2020.  Although this is an appealing thought, there’s no underlying cause for a super cycle this time around.  Instead we see the current revenue increase as a smaller cycle similar to the more muted cycles of most years between 2007-2016.  Something like this appears in the chart below between the two super cycles.

We’ve been calling it a “Bump” because it should go up and down relatively quickly.  Such bumps are a normal part of a healthy chip market.  There were even bumps during the past two super cycles, but their impact was small compared to the greater magnitude of the super cycles.

Curve with actual monthly semiconductor revenues from 2017 to October 2023 overlaying a straight 3.9% average annual growth line. The 2017 and 2023 super cycles are denoted, as is a bump in 2019.

That said, our forecast calls for total semiconductor growth to be below 5% for 2024, which is a very different outlook from a number of other forecasts we have heard of that range from 11-17%.  This low growth is partly due to our projection of very low DRAM revenue growth.

For a deeper dive into the thinking behind this forecast you may want to watch a 17-minute video on the Objective Analysis “Forecast Accuracy” page.  This page compares our past 17 years of forecasts to the year’s actual outcome.  Sometimes we are very wrong, but far more often we are right, or very close.  We’re pretty proud of that.

The 2024 forecast video can be viewed by clicking on the year 2024.  Videos of all prior forecasts are available by clicking on each year.

In contrast to most other forecasters, we don’t keep modifying our forecast over the course of the year.   Our clients can’t change their plans that often, so we take the approach that we need to do it once, and do it right the first time.

Of course, we always hope to grow our client base.  We can help with your planning and strategizing so that you too will do it right the first time.  Please contact Objective Analysis to learn of ways that we can work together to the benefit of your business.