Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule

Partial view of a graph, only showing a dashed straight black line, a red bump above, red dashes falling back to the black, and a blue line to the right of the red dashed line.The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently released its January semiconductor market revenue figures.  January revenues were down 5.2% month-on-month, and 18.5% from January 2022.  Things are pretty bad.

The Memory Guy decided to compare the current situation to the forecast that I was sharing with my clients last October, five months ago.  At that time my company predicted that 2022 revenues would Continue reading “Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule”

A Very Revealing ULTRARAM Update

Photo of Ron Neale, Renowned Phase-Change Memory ExpertContributor Ron Neale returns to The Memory Guy blog with a deeper analysis of the University of Lancaster’s ULTRARAM, which was first announced relatively recently, in early 2020.  This post includes his revealing interchange with the university’s Professor Manus Hayne, a key member of the ULTRARAM program, in which the professor indicates that GaAs ICs and Chiplets might be the way ahead for this technology.

Ron tells me that this is the first mention that he is aware of for Continue reading “A Very Revealing ULTRARAM Update”

Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming

[Post updated 14 Feb. with Kioxia data, a margin chart, and to correct an error.]

The quarterly results of most memory companies have been reported, and revenues, gigabyte shipments, and prices are all down.  Most of the profits have been taken out of the business.

This is not an unusual situation for Continue reading “Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming”

The Future of Chalcogenide Switching

Photo of Ron Neale, Renowned Phase-Change Memory ExpertIn this post in The Memory Guy blog, the first of a 2-part series, Ron Neale returns to explore the present state-of-play for chalcogenide-based switching and memory, with a plea for continuation of research.  Along the way he invokes a three-point law for determining the probability of success for would be emerging memory entrepreneurs.


Does PCM still have a chance to become an important new memory technology?  Intel’s abandonment of their Optane memory project, while sad, after so much effort and expense, does not and should not Continue reading “The Future of Chalcogenide Switching”

Objective Analysis Forecast Update

Sketch of a chart with arrow pointing up and to the rightAlthough The Memory Guy blog doesn’t often discuss the total semiconductor market, Objective Analysis does a particularly good job of forecasting not only memories, but also the semiconductor market as a whole.

That said,  a video explaining our 2023 semiconductor forecast has recently Continue reading “Objective Analysis Forecast Update”

Introducing a RAM You Never Heard of – CRAM!

1961 photo of a man and a woman posing in front of a computer of that era.Before there was DRAM (1969, Bob Dennard) or SRAM (1963, Robert H. Norman) there was another little-known random-access memory from computer maker NCR that was known as CRAM.  The Memory Guy only recently learned of this technology thanks to a relative’s visit to the NCR Collection in the Dayton History Museum in Dayton, Ohio.

CRAM, a magnetic technology, was a vital part of the Continue reading “Introducing a RAM You Never Heard of – CRAM!”

Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses

Old wood block print showing knights riding their steeds over a cliff.Starting with Micron’s most recent earnings call The Memory Guy has been hearing memory executives and others use the word “Unprecedented” to describe today’s market collapse.  Perhaps the strangest of these was an article in the Storage Newsletter that said that the current situation was “Unprecedented since 2008.”  Given that “Unprecedented” means that nothing like this has ever happened before, that’s a pretty strange thing to say.

Being a numbers guy, I decided to see just how Continue reading “Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses”

Emerging Memories After Optane

Prism made of memory hierarchy splitting a beam of light into a color spectrum. Each color has the name of a new memory technology.Now that Intel is exiting the Optane market what will happen to the market for new memory technologies?  This is an interesting question that The Memory Guy has focused considerable attention over the past few years.  In a nutshell, the market will continue to develop, but at a slower pace, with the bulk of revenue growth going to memories embedded into SoCs.

Even so, the market will grow significantly, with revenues reaching Continue reading “Emerging Memories After Optane”

Kioxia Announces Another 30% NAND Production Cut

On Friday 30 September 2022 Kioxia announced a 30% NAND flash wafer production cut in response to worsening market conditions.  Kioxia’s manufacturing partner, Western Digital (WDC), decided not to comment on the Kioxia announcement.

If Kioxia’s announcement sounds familiar to you that’s because the company made the exact same Continue reading “Kioxia Announces Another 30% NAND Production Cut”