In early February the Samsung Strategy & Innovation Center asked for The Memory Guy to present an outlook for semiconductors as a part of the company’s Samsung Forum series.
Samsung kindly posted a video of this presentation on-line for anyone to watch.
Naturally, the presentation is memory-focused since it consists of the Memory Guy presenting to the world’s leading memory chip supplier. Still, it also covers total semiconductor revenues and demand drivers for future non-memory technologies, as well as memory chips.
During the presentation I explained that the next few years will bring semiconductors into new applications while chips will maintain their strength in existing markets. I showed how semiconductor demand doesn’t change much over time, but that the real swing factor in chip revenues is chip pricing, which varies significantly, especially for memory chips like DRAM and NAND flash.
These price swings force the semiconductor market to continue to suffer from the same challenging cycles it has endured in the past. By using the very predictable nature of these price swings I showed how to compile a consistently-accurate memory forecast, and how to use that to derive an accurate total semiconductor forecast.
Anybody can put together an accurate semiconductor forecast if they use the same methodology that I describe in the video.
In another part of the presentation I worked to combine an understanding of tomorrow’s applications with a realistic outlook for future chip technologies. When this was married to basic economic principles it delivered a clearer picture of the future’s potential for the semiconductor industry.
Consider this to be a mini version of the kind of data readily available to Objective Analysis clients. It’s the kind of insight that helps them to better plan for future success.
The video is 47 minutes long, but it should be a good investment of your time.