Announcing Our New CXL Report

Sketch of a CXL 3.0 fabric. There are four switches in the middle of the diagram on the top left and right and the bottom left and right. Each switch is connected to all of the others via CXL ISL Links, which are represented by a simple straight line between each one. Each switch is also connected to two hosts through two CXL Links, so there are eight hosts in the sketch. The two right-side switches are also connected to two CXL memory modules, which connect to the CXL link to the switch through a yellow box called "CXL MC" representing the CXL Memory Controller and to a red box marked "Mem" representing the memory chips.The Memory Guy is pleased to announce general availability of a new Objective Analysis Detailed Report: CXL Looks for the Perfect Home.

Since Compute Express Link (CXL) is so important to members of the DRAM market and the hyperscale computing community, the report focuses on those sectors, but it offers Continue reading “Announcing Our New CXL Report”

Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released

Close-Up of the COVID-19 Super Cycle and of 2023 from the chart below.Objective Analysis has just released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, and it seems fitting to mention it on The Memory Guy blog since memories are a key part of the semiconductor business’ cyclicality.  Let’s have a quick look at what’s in store.

Late 2023 is starting to show signs of another super cycle similar to those of Continue reading “Objective Analysis 2024 Forecast Released”

Is the Memory Business Turning Around?

Cartoon face spelling "memory" with an upturn arrow for a smileThe memory business is giving indications of improved health, and The Memory Guy thought that it might be a good idea to share some insights normally reserved for Objective Analysis’ paying clients.

Let’s have a look at what we know so far.

DRAM and NAND flash spot prices are slightly Continue reading “Is the Memory Business Turning Around?”

Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?

My regular clients who get quarterly in-person market updates and those readers who have attended my annual Flash Market Update session at the Flash Memory Summit have often been told how Objective Analysis models the memory market based on supply/demand dynamics and the fact that memory chip prices tend to follow a very predictable pattern.  In this post The Memory Guy blog will explain that Continue reading “Where Are We in the Memory Cycle?”

Micron Closed Out of Some China Markets

Logos for both Micron and the Cybersecurity Administration of ChinaOn May 21 a government agency in China issued a ruling to prevent Micron Technology products from being used in systems that handle critical information.  This is the outcome of an investigation that the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) opened in March, accusing the company of cybersecurity crimes.

This Memory Guy blog post examines the impact of Continue reading “Micron Closed Out of Some China Markets”

Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule

Partial view of a graph, only showing a dashed straight black line, a red bump above, red dashes falling back to the black, and a blue line to the right of the red dashed line.The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently released its January semiconductor market revenue figures.  January revenues were down 5.2% month-on-month, and 18.5% from January 2022.  Things are pretty bad.

The Memory Guy decided to compare the current situation to the forecast that I was sharing with my clients last October, five months ago.  At that time my company predicted that 2022 revenues would Continue reading “Semiconductor Collapse Runs Slightly Behind Schedule”

Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming

[Post updated 14 Feb. with Kioxia data, a margin chart, and to correct an error.]

The quarterly results of most memory companies have been reported, and revenues, gigabyte shipments, and prices are all down.  Most of the profits have been taken out of the business.

This is not an unusual situation for Continue reading “Memory Market Down, but a Turnaround is Coming”

Objective Analysis Forecast Update

Sketch of a chart with arrow pointing up and to the rightAlthough The Memory Guy blog doesn’t often discuss the total semiconductor market, Objective Analysis does a particularly good job of forecasting not only memories, but also the semiconductor market as a whole.

That said,  a video explaining our 2023 semiconductor forecast has recently Continue reading “Objective Analysis Forecast Update”

Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses

Old wood block print showing knights riding their steeds over a cliff.Starting with Micron’s most recent earnings call The Memory Guy has been hearing memory executives and others use the word “Unprecedented” to describe today’s market collapse.  Perhaps the strangest of these was an article in the Storage Newsletter that said that the current situation was “Unprecedented since 2008.”  Given that “Unprecedented” means that nothing like this has ever happened before, that’s a pretty strange thing to say.

Being a numbers guy, I decided to see just how Continue reading “Today’s “Unprecedented” Collapses”

Emerging Memories After Optane

Prism made of memory hierarchy splitting a beam of light into a color spectrum. Each color has the name of a new memory technology.Now that Intel is exiting the Optane market what will happen to the market for new memory technologies?  This is an interesting question that The Memory Guy has focused considerable attention over the past few years.  In a nutshell, the market will continue to develop, but at a slower pace, with the bulk of revenue growth going to memories embedded into SoCs.

Even so, the market will grow significantly, with revenues reaching Continue reading “Emerging Memories After Optane”

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