DRAM - The Memory Guy Blog

Why DRAM Bit Growth will Suffer

It seems that DRAM makers are still unaware of the impact NAND flash will have on DRAM revenues. Even though many are paying a lot of attention to the impact of the Tablet PC on Notebook PC shipments, few understand that even a healthy notebook market will start to place a decreasing focus on the system DRAM in the near future.

The reason why is simple, and it’s explained in great detail in a report: How PC NAND will Undermine DRAM. In a nutshell, once a basic minimum DRAM requirement has been met, NAND flash yields a greater performance return per dollar than does DRAM. This is illustrated in the graphic to the left.

Forget about the fact that NAND flash is nonvolatile, and that it offers Continue reading “Why DRAM Bit Growth will Suffer”

Why DRAMs are Like Steel

Over lunch today I had a conversation with an alum of McKinsey Consulting who remarked that the DRAM business behaved in a way that was similar to the McKinsey Steel Model. For those unfamiliar with this model I found a slideshow HERE that refers to it a good deal. (So far I have not found a tutorial on the model itself, but if anyone knows were to find it The Memory Guy would highly appreciate hearing about it.)

One interesting thing is that this particular McKinsey alum was not the first to point this out to me. About 15 years ago a family friend/McKinsey alum told me exactly the same thing. It seems that the economics of the DRAM business have changed little over the past 15 years, and the McKinsey steel model applies to DRAMs just as well now as it did then.

In a nutshell, the model posits that the market price for Continue reading “Why DRAMs are Like Steel”

Figuring Out Who Shipped What

Today I saw an announcement from another market research firm about a new report with flash memory market shares for 2011. I found it remarkable that the way these chips are counted varies enough that the company decided to openly discuss this issue right in the press release for the report!

Memory market statistics are compiled by numerous firms: The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) sold in the US and Europe by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), Gartner Dataquest, IHS iSuppli, Web Feet, Semico, Forward Insights, and even DRAMexchange. Lots of entities use conflicting definitions of what is and what is not a chip. This causes each company’s numbers to differ from the others’.

In the case of WSTS, a chip that is packaged with another chip into a board becomes Continue reading “Figuring Out Who Shipped What”

Invensas’ DIMM-in-a-Package

Tessara’s Invensas subsidiary has announced a new packaging technology to produce what the company calls a “DIMM in a Package.”

The new product is said to deliver the capacity and performance of an SO-DIMM in a 16x16mm BGA. It is built using Invensas’ xFD technology.

I have seen examples of Invensas’ xFD and the first thought that struck me was: “Why didn’t I think of that?!?” It’s an elegantly simple approach to today’s connection conundrums. By staggering chips and mounting them face-down over holes for bonding wires the company connects DRAMs with far shorter interconnect lengths and less scrambling, leading to higher performance.

Although this technology is not yet covered in any of our current reports, we do have a report on cell phone packages: Flash Packaging: What Phone Makers Want and Why, that can be purchased for immediate download on the Objective Analysis website.

Remembering Core Memory

Nostalgia buffs who lived through computing in the 1970s will enjoy some magnificent photos shared in a blog post by Ryszard Milewicz. These photos give three views of a ferrite core memory plane. The photo from this blog is a part of one of Mr. Milewicz’ close-up photos.

For those who were not exposed to core memory, this technology was based upon an approach in which every individual bit of a computer’s memory was a tiny donut made of compressed iron powder (“Ferrite”) that had to be hand strung with copper wire into a plane of bits.

A co-worker of The Memory Guy once had a high-speed core memory array that he used as Continue reading “Remembering Core Memory”

Elpida Files for Bankruptcy

Elpida today filed for bankruptcy. The troubled DRAM manufacturer has been unprofitable for the past five quarters and was facing repayment requirements that the current market would prevent the company from meeting.

The company is the world’s third largest DRAM maker, and is the last remaining Japanese DRAM company. This is particularly stunning for DRAM industry veterans, since Japanese DRAM makers were at one time the largest in the world. NEC used to be the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer based largely upon its DRAM revenues.

Objective Analysis has issued an Alert covering this news. It can be downloaded for free from the Objective Analysis Reports page.

Micron Suffers Another Loss

Soon after the death of Micron president Steve Appleton, former chairman & COO Jim Garrett passed away. Garrett died at age 64 from cancer.

Garrett joined Micron in 1985 as vice president of sales & marketing and became vice chairman in 1990. He served as chairman and chief operating officer from 1992-1994 until his resignation over allegations that another boardmember released internal company information.

Garrett had a good reputation as a positive manager who helped guide Micron through a very difficult period for the US DRAM industry.

Elpida Finally Makes Statement

For months rumors have abounded regarding Elpida’s viability and plans the company has to overcome its current financial woes. Although the company has been questioned about advanced payments and loans from its customers, takeover and merger possibilities, and even government intervention, Elpida has remained silent, refusing to comment.

Today the company finally made a statement that it will be adding a note to its Q3 results and earnings report: “on Matters concerning the Assumed Going Concern.”

This statement, which looks like it was written very carefully by either Continue reading “Elpida Finally Makes Statement”

Micron CEO Killed in Plane Crash

Today Micron CEO Steve Appleton was killed in an airplane accident. Objective Analysis has issued an alert to our clients and subscribers giving details of the wreck, Appleton’s contributions to the company, and some thoughts on the company’s succession. The Alert can be viewed by visiting the Objective Analysis Reports page.

Most of all my thoughts and sympathies go to Appleton’s family and his former co-workers, all of whom are mourning his death. Although we realize that Mr. Appleton will be missed, but we know that Micron will continue to follow the path set up by Appleton’s predecessor, Micron founder Jerry Parkinson, to maintain its position as one of the leading memory chip suppliers.

DRAM Consolidation in 2012?

2012 is likely to be a year in which the DRAM market consolidates a little bit more.

Consider this:

At its peak in the late 1980s the DRAM market sported 23 suppliers.
Today there are 6 suppliers of any note: Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Elpida, Nanya, and Powerchip
The already-depressed market is only going to worsen in 2012. Capital spending in 2010 is seeing to that. Although many believe that prices cannot get any lower, that is exactly what they will do in 2012. Continue reading “DRAM Consolidation in 2012?”